Doha: Qatar National Bank (QNB) has maintained a positive outlook for global trade prospects this year, forecasting continued growth driven by strong momentum in artificial intelligence-related investment, stable global manufacturing activity, and the resilience of supply chains in adapting to economic and trade developments.
According to Qatar News Agency, in its weekly report, QNB highlighted that global trade has faced significant challenges in recent years, shaped by rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions. These headwinds, compounded by a slowdown in global manufacturing, weighed heavily on cross-border flows through 2023 and early 2024. However, in 2025, trade growth rebounded more strongly than expected, driven in large part by a surge in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) related goods and investment. This resurgence helped offset the negative effects of higher US tariffs and policy uncertainty.
Despite the persistence of these headwinds, several underlying factors are providing renewed support to global trade. Among these factors, a powerful investment cycle in advanced technologies, the normalization of manufacturing, and the continued dynamism of emerging market trade networks are helping to sustain cross-border flows. Momentum has carried into the current period, with forward-looking indicators pointing to sustained growth in global trade.
The export performance of highly integrated Asian economies such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam has remained robust, with growth accelerating in recent months and showing limited impact from ongoing trade tensions. At the same time, investor expectations for the transportation sector, as reflected in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, have improved and signal expanding trade activity. Taken together, these indicators suggest that global trade momentum remains firm, supporting expectations of continued expansion in the near term.